Above shows the number of 3G launches per quarter.

US : The GSM family of network technologies dominates the wireless market with more than 850 million subscribers, far more than the rival CDMA family of technologies, with only about 150 million subscribers. However, the next generation of the CDMA-family, CDMA2000 1X EV-DO, has caught on much faster than the next iteration in the GSM-family, WCDMA. Technology market research firm ABI closely tracks the developments in these network technologies and estimates that currently there are about 20 live WCDMA and CDMA2000 1X EV-DO networks competing for subscribers.

The 3G revolution began with the launch of the FOMA/WCDMA network by NTT DoCoMo in 2001 with a few additional carriers following since then. In the CDMA camp, SK Telecom was the first operator to launch a CDMA2000 1X EV-DO network in early 2002.

After billions of dollars spent on 3G licensing, most European operators have delayed their plans to launch WCDMA networks until technical and market hurdles are overcome. Unlike the handset interoperability issues with the GSM to WCDMA upgrade, CDMA2000 1X EV-DO handsets are backward compatible, thereby easing the transition to advanced networks. This improves the overall user experience initially as it enables seamless roaming for areas not yet upgraded while mitigating the financial burden on wireless carriers. ABI therefore estimates that the adoption rate will remain higher among CDMA users for EV-DO networks, though over time, WCDMA subscribers will out number those for EV-DO

This trend has been witnessed in Asia, with NTT DoCoMo in Japan and SK Telecom in South Korea. NTT DoCoMo had a rough time gathering customers in the last 18 months, with the situation only turning around in March of this year. By June 2003, the operator reported 530,000 users-about a third of what SK Telecom achieved in the same time period with their CDMA 1X EV-DO network. Currently, SK telecom has nearly 1.5 million EV-DO subscribers.

"This trend will reverse, as technical hurdles are crossed and operators turn the switch on WCDMA networks in Europe," explains ABI analyst Kenil Vora. "Over time, WCDMA subscribers will out number those for EV-DO networks," he adds. ABI does not expect any additional large-scale launches for the remainder of 2003.

The report, "Wireless Network Operator Strategies," examines the approaches adopted by major global operators and provides a realistic outlook on where the industry is headed. The report also includes deployment projections for WCDMA, CDMA2000, EDGE, MMS and Wi-Fi technologies, as adopted by various operators. The study is available as a standalone report or as part of ABI's Wireless Operators Subscription Service.