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3.5G Will Decisively Disrupt the Center of Gravity in Handset Memory

4th October , 2004

US : As it is introduced over the next few years, HSDPA -- High Speed Download Packet Access -- will produce a major shift in the landscape of cellular handset memory, forcing major NOR FLASH memory vendors such as Intel and the AMD/Fujitsu alliance to adapt or risk loss of market share.

With UMTS starting to gain real traction in Europe and Asia, telecommunications industry watchers are already turning their attention to HSPDA. While UMTS, with its promise of 300 kbits per second in the downlink, was touted as enabling video streaming, video conferencing and broadband Internet access, it is HSDPA, with its 3.6Mbits/sec downlink speeds, which will finally deliver the smooth user experience promised by 3G mobile technologies.

But as ABI Research's director of semiconductors research, Alan Varghese, points out, HSDPA will require new handsets, and they must contain more memory -- at least double the amount -- of their predecessors. "This will be needed to store the increased content coming over the airwaves," says Varghese, "and we also need increased memory just to store and run the software for HSDPA."

According to ABI Research's forecasts, wireless infrastructure should begin carrying HSDPA signals in 2005, with handsets becoming widely available in 2006, first in Japan, then more or less simultaneously in Europe and North America.

This means, says Varghese, that demand for NAND FLASH memory will increase at the expense of traditional NOR FLASH. Samsung, Toshiba, Renesas and others that are already making NAND memory are well positioned for this change. Those that continue to place their bets exclusively on NOR may face erosion of their market share.

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