Although
the wireless data/Internet market has had to bear the brunt of some
tough public criticism, it is steadily progressing, according to In-Stat/MDR.
The high- tech market research firm reports that there are some very
bright spots in the wireless data market.
Picture
shows one of the graphs from the report.
The
availability of the proper infrastructure and color handsets, and the
rollout of next generation services such as CDMA 1xRTT and General Packet
Radio Service (GPRS), is aiding the market's growth. Overall, the messaging
market (thanks to the newer Enhanced Messaging Service (EMS) and Multimedia
Messaging Services (MMS) that support graphics and video) will continue
to outstrip the wireless Internet market, in terms
of subscribers, through 2006, growing from an estimated 305
million at the end of 2001 to more than 1 billion by the
end of 2006. While smaller than the messaging market, the
wireless Internet market is growing at the same pace.
"Going forward, the
wireless Internet market's future rests
largely on service pricing," says Becky Diercks, a Director
with In-Stat/MDR. "In most regions, service pricing is
completely inconsistent and far too expensive for the
average consumer. However, Orange's announcement of bargain
basement GPRS pricing in Europe and Nextel and Verizon
Wireless' flat pricing in the US are definitely steps in
the right direction. Sprint PCS launched a challenge to
other US providers just last week with extremely aggressive
pricing for PCS Vision." Beyond service pricing, more
compelling applications need to come to market and carriers
need to do a better job of tying applications to services
for the market to really take off. Thus far, the CDMA-
based carriers are experiencing more success tying
applications to services than are the GPRS carriers.
In-Stat/MDR also found that:
- The wireless Internet market
will grow from 74 million
wireless Internet subscribers, at the end of 2001, to
more than 320 million subscribers by the end of 2006.
- Japan is the obvious early
leader in the wireless
Internet market, primarily due to the innovations of
NTT DoCoMo, based on Personal Digital Cellular (PDC)
technology. However, competition is growing in Japan,
and DoCoMo's next hope, its Wideband Code Division
Multiple Access (W-CDMA)-based Freedom of Mobile
Access (FOMA) service, is largely failing due to
minimal coverage, high device and service pricing, and
a lack of applications that set that technology apart
from the earlier generation's service.
- The Korean market is now
coming on strong in the
Wireless Internet space, largely fueled by CDMA
technologies, and the US is not performing as badly as
some might expect. The Wireless Internet market is
receiving a further caffeine jolt from Sun's J2ME and
even Qualcomm's Binary Runtime Environment for
Wireless (BREW) technologies. Even WAP is performing
satisfactorily, when integrated with these
technologies, in certain markets.
- Europe is largely failing
with GPRS technology and,
not including SMS and other messaging services, is
falling behind the rest of the world in terms of
wireless data adoption. W-CDMA technology will likely
not be its savior.
The report, "Worldwide Wireless Data/Internet Market:
Bright Spots in a Dark Industry" (#IN020295MD), forecasts
the worldwide wireless messaging and Internet market.
Forecasts are broken down in detail, by region (Americas,
Europe, Japan, ROW). Subscriber forecasts for all of the
primary air-interface technologies (circuit-switched CDMA,
CDMA 1xRTT, CDMA 1xEVDO, CDMA 1xEVDV, circuit-switched TDMA
and GSM, EDGE, W-CDMA/UMTS, PHS and PDC) are provided.
Additional information is broken down for the US market
(private packet services including CDPD, iDEN, DATATAC and
Mobitex) and for two-way messaging (ReFLEX). Additionally,
US subscriber forecasts are broken down by consumer and
business user. Carrier profiles are also included for 30
of the leading mobile operators.
