4G Is Imminent on the Heels of 3G

Fourth generation wireless will be rolled out by this time next year by forward-thinking wireless operators who are now working with 4G technology providers in an effort to leapfrog expensive and ineffective third generation wireless strategies.

Year Users In Millions ( 1G, 2G,2.5G,3G,4G and Wi-Fi )

2001 86.1
2002 127.9
2003 219.0
2004 283.6
2005 350.0
2006 450.2
2007 530.6

According to a new study, "3G Alternatives: 3G vs. Wi-Fi vs. 4G" from Visant Strategies, 4G cellular technologies may be deployed as soon as mid-2003. A number of different 4G air interfaces are now being readied for beta deployments by leading wireless operators since 4G technologies offer a lower cost and/or higher performance alternative to traditional 3G systems.

4G digital I/P-based high-speed cellular systems are anticipated to account for 14% of total mobile wireless data revenues in 2007 and 50 million subscribers by year-end 2007. 4G infrastructure sales will reach $5.3 billion during 2007.

WLAN enabled hot spots will generate approximately $12 billion in revenues in 2007. Wi-Fi, operators and aggregators will form a symbiotic relationship with mobile operators, with mobile carriers accounting for over 60% of all hot spot revenues in 2007. Mobile operators are already using Wi-Fi to complement existing services and are expanding the use of the technology, particularly in the enterprise sector, which is fueling both Wi-Fi and mobile wireless applications.

Wi-Fi's threat to 3G is not fully realized until it is coupled with existing 2.5G technologies such as GPRS. Together these technologies can provide wide coverage at roughly analog modem speeds and fast data rates in areas with heavy user traffic.

Despite threats, 3G is expected to show positive results in the long run. Subscribers to W-CDMA-based services are expected to reach 90 million by 2007, mainly in Japan and Europe. Operators are now seeking to extend the life and capabilities of existing 2G systems through inexpensive and expensive upgrades to GPRS, EDGE, and cdma2000 1XRTT thus delaying the deployment of 3G solutions such as W-CDMA.
The study defines global growth in 2.5G, 3G, 4G and Wi-Fi with subscribers, market share and sales of infrastructure from 2002 through 2007.