US : TD-SCDMA represents a significant opportunity for China to establish a global communication standard, to lead the development of the technology, and to own more intellectual property rights, which in turn will lower royalty fees and manufacturing costs, reports In-Stat.

However, homegrown TD-SCDMA has made China's road into 3G complex and tortuous, mainly due to the Chinese government's concerns about Intellectual Property Rights (IPRs), the high-tech market research firm says.

"The awarding of 3G licenses has been delayed due to the technological immaturity of TD-SCDMA," says Kevin Li, In-Stat ( inset ) analyst. "In-Stat regards the current round of testing as the pre-commercial application that embodies the Chinese government's preference for promoting
TD-SCDMA's development ahead of WCDMA or CDMA2000."

Recent research by In-Stat found the following:

- TD-SCDMA subscribers will experience fast growth after 2008, and will approach 52 million in China by 2011, assuming that China Mobile obtains a TD-SCDMA license.

- In the TD-SCDMA value chain, handset development still lags behind that of equipment systems. The main problems stem from issues related to power consumption and dual-mode seamless switching.

- Data service and VASs will be the key content to be tested in 2007.

The research, "TD-SCDMA Market: Handsets Will Not Be The Bottleneck" (#IN0703700CNT), assesses the maturity of the TD-SCDMA industry from the point of view of system equipment, handsets, IT/software, chipsets, and operation. It also addresses the following in detail: 1) handset design cost and cycle; 2) the dual-mode issue; 3) handset chipset vendor differentiations; 4) equipment providers' competitive landscapes; 5) IC vendors' opportunities in TD-SCDMA base stations; 6) TD-SCDMA operation strategy; and 7) TD-SCDMA's international opportunity. Through analysis of carriers' deployment plans and TCO on TD-SCDMA, forecasts for base station shipments, infrastructure investment, subscribers and handset are also provided.