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3G Prospects Look GRIM

4th June 2003

Europe : With the exception of Short Messaging Services (SMS), wireless data in Europe, as in the Americas, has arrived with a whimper rather than a bang, reports In-Stat/MDR. The high-tech market research firm finds that, the prospects for 3G services, which are being launched during a seemingly unending telecom slump, look grim and newly launched messaging services such as Multimedia Message Service (MMS) and Instant Messaging (IM) will not reach double-digit (10 percent) penetration before 2007.

"Wireless IM, which provides a person's presence availability for correspondence, has a real potential for SMS cannibalization in Europe," said Ken Hyers, a senior analyst with In-Stat/MDR. "However, while the demand for wireless e-mail, SMS, and, potentially, IM is clear, interest in new and future messaging services, such as Enhanced Messaging Service (EMS), is not." Network upgrades and improvements, and messaging friendly devices will be the most crucial developments for success in the messaging industry, and, to a large degree, operators' data success rests in handset manufacturers hands.

In-Stat/MDR has also found that:

-- SMS Mobile Originate (MO) message volume and revenue will peak in 2003, before declining to approximately $3 billion in 2007, a 2003-2007 CAGR decline of -24 percent. However, SMS will not be overtaken by another messaging format before 2006, when Wireless Instant Messaging (IM) and Multimedia Message Service (MMS) will take the lead.

-- SMS Centre (SMSC) spending will decline steadily through 2007, with a -10 percent CAGR through 2007. At the same time, MMS Centre (MMSC) spending will decline by -35 percent CAGR through 2007.

-- Initial demand for MMS has the most potential among business people, who, typically, possess the monthly disposable income for the higher priced messaging service. The average tariff per message, in 2003, is approximately $0.40, and is expected to decline to approximately $0.17 in 2007, implying a 2003- 2007 CAGR of -16 percent.

The report, "The Best Has Yet to Come: Wireless Messaging Models for Europe" (#IN030931MD), provides a total overview of the potential and revenue opportunity for wireless messaging services in Europe. Messaging formats covered in this report are Short Message Service (SMS), Enhanced Message Service (EMS), Multimedia Message Service (MMS), Wireless Instant Messaging (IM) and e-mail. This report provides an explanation of how wireless data and messaging will continue to evolve in Europe. In Europe, messaging in general, and SMS in particular, is in a strong growth phase. Person-to-person (P2P) messaging is showing signs of plateauing in some countries (the UK, Germany, and Sweden, for example). The launch of MMS and IM highlight this ever-shifting market that will help drive revenues to the next level when the industry needs it most.

TODAY'S PRESS RELEASES
Little Mention Of 3G at 3
After all the hype around 3G and "3" and all the services that will be available at high speed over the network - what is the main selling point for a new "3" mobile phone? Unbelievably it is the price of the voice traffic!
Apple Support 3GPP
Apple announced QuickTime® 6.3, the industry's first mainstream solution to support the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) standard and to deliver a foundation for the creation, delivery and playback of rich multimedia content over wireless networks.
RFI Invests In 3G
Radio Frequency Investigation Ltd (RFI) has become a shareholder in RFI Japan as part of its commitment to the development of Bluetooth and 3G products and services in Asia.
O2 Place 3G Contract
Lucent Technologies announced that it has been selected by O2 to provide packet infrastructure, software and services, to enable the operator to deploy and manage a voice and data transport network to support its 3G UMTS (universal mobile telecommunications system) network roll out. The three-year framework agreement has a potential value in excess of $45 million.
Taiwanese 3G Operator Places Contract
Intec Telecom Systems has signed a second deal with Taiwan-based 3G operator Asia Pacific Broadband Wireless Communications (APBW) to supply its world leading settlement solution InterconnecT(tm).
2 New Sha-mail Wireless Phones
J-PHONE it will offer two new Sha-mail picture messaging handsets, the J-D08 by Mitsubishi Electric and the J-T010 by Toshiba, for sale after early July.
3G Prospects Look GRIM
With the exception of Short Messaging Services (SMS), wireless data in Europe, as in the Americas, has arrived with a whimper rather than a bang, reports In-Stat/MDR. The high-tech market research firm finds that, the prospects for 3G services, which are being launched during a seemingly unending telecom slump, look grim
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