ASIA China : CCID Consulting recently discussed the current prospects for TD-SCDMA. TD-SCDMA is a mobile communications standard being promoted in the People's Republic of China. For the industry surrounding it to develop in both a benevolent as well as a benign way, it is necessary to correct terminal makers' R&D deviations.

Though TD-SCDMA is an excellent example of independent innovations in the information industry, numerous firms on the TD industry chain have R&D deviations, causing difficulties to end consumers. These firms comprise mainly chip makers and terminal manufacturers. Industry restructuring was thought at some point to be the solution by creating a single standard. This has run into some problems, however, as, at one stage, industry circles thought that China Telecom would be given the task to develop TD-SCDMA.

Consequently, chip makers and terminal manufacturers have all operated their design and development according to the dual-mode and dual- standby mode. As fortunes have changed, however, the current situation suggests that China Mobile is most likely to assume the task for TD network building. China Mobile's standard requires the dual-mode and single-standby mode, a standard differing from China Telecom. This will be a completely new turn for terminal manufacturers. Due to changing downstream demands on the industry chain, small- and medium-sized businesses (SMB), which took part in the early development of TD terminals and testing instruments, have lost their early leading advantages in development technologies. Now, the initial stages of 3G policies are all but over, and this will likely attract the entry of large foreign firms.

There is no way for the SMBs which took part in the early development to continue to compete against larger firms. China Mobile has made a firm pledge to guarantee to bring TD into commercial use this October. It has started to put pressure on all vendors. Under dual pressure from both home and abroad, terminal makers will have a difficult time not acquiescing. There are many further risks to be wary of, for instance market size needs to be taken into consideration in the development of TD. Industry insiders say that in order to lower chip costs the effect of scale has to be taken into account. This scale is in the order of several millions. In other words, one chip enterprise in the industry chain needs to be fed by several million users. Coverage will be a problem in the initial stages of network building. China Mobile is bound to position TD users as low-end users.

There is still a long road ahead for the TD industry to develop in a benign fashion. It is precisely for this reason that the Chinese government has adopted the strategy of trial commercial use, in order to avoid the 3G licensing issue, and allow TD to develop for a little while longer. Meanwhile, to break the terminals bottleneck, the National Development and Reform Commission issued 4 mobile phone licenses early this year. From the current status of TD development, the TD license may be issued later this year or early next year, while the licenses for the other 2 systems may be issued 1 or 2 months later.

About CCID Consulting : CCID Consulting Co., Ltd. (also known as CCID Consulting), the first Chinese consulting firm listed in the Growth Enterprise Market of the Stock Exchange (GEM) of Hong Kong (stock code: HK08235), is a direct affiliate of the China Center for Information Industry Development (hereinafter known as CCID Group). Headquartered in Beijing, CCID Consulting has so far set up branch offices in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Harbin, with over 300 professional consultants and industry experts. The Company's business scope has covered over 200 large- and medium-sized cities in China.