US : Ultra-low-cost home base stations that allow wireless users to communicate across any IP access network using a standard mobile handset will challenge WiFi VOIP for dominance in the consumer fixed/mobile convergence (FMC) market, finds the latest report from Unstrung Insider. "3G Home Base Stations: Femto Cells & FMC for the Masses" identifies key market opportunities for emerging femto cell technology and analyzes the product strategies and roadmaps of more than a dozen leading providers of home base stations.
The major benefits of home base station technology for mobile operators include the ability to provide capacity that scales in line with subscriber demand, a reduced requirement to deploy additional macro carriers to support indoor users, and an opex requirement that is kept in check by IP backhaul paid for by the customer. By deploying capacity indoors, where it is most needed, cellular operators also gain greater flexibility to introduce disruptive pricing and bundling strategies, allowing them to accelerate capture of wireline voice minutes and grow revenues. Over the long term, there's an opportunity to develop services that take advantage of low-cost, high-speed Internet access to mobile devices, which could potentially extend to applications that use handsets to access and control multimedia home networks.
Both technical and economic challenges must be overcome before femto cells can be widely deployed. "On the radio access side, equipment suppliers still need to prove that these devices can coexist with the macro network without negatively affecting its performance," notes Gabriel Brown, Chief Analyst for Unstrung Insider and author of the report. "Integration with core network infrastructure is also critical, yet there's uncertainty about how best to achieve this," notes Brown. "There's a desire to move as fast as possible towards a flat all-IP architecture using IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) applications for cross-network call control, but operators are also evaluating alternative mechanisms, such as Iub over IP or Unlicensed Mobile Access (UMA)/Generic Access Network (GAN), as interim approaches." Key findings of "3G Home Base Stations: Femto Cells & FMC for the Masses" include: * Vendors say femto cells could sell for $100 by the end of 2008. The price is attainable, but the timeline is not: $200 to $300 is more realistic. * Startups 3Way, AirWalk, ip.access, picoChip, RadioFrame, and Ubiquisys are spurring innovation. * Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, NEC, and Samsung have the most advanced femto development programs of major equipment vendors.
Huawei, Motorola, Nokia-Siemens, and ZTE will likely work with OEM partners. * Core network integration is a critical issue, with three options on the table: Iub over IP, UMA, and IMS/SIP. * "Collapsed stack" femto designs will win out over RAN-based architectures in the medium term; this offers vendors looking to break into new accounts an entry point, but is a negative for incumbent RAN vendors. Companies analyzed in this report include: Airvana; AirWalk Communications; Alcatel-Lucent; Andrew; Ericsson; ip.access; Motorola; NEC; Nokia Siemens Networks; PicoChip Designs; RadioFrame Networks; Samsung Electronics; and Ubiquisys. The report "3G Home Base Stations: Femto Cells & FMC for the Masses" is available as part of an annual subscription (12 issues) to Unstrung Insider, priced at $1,595. Individual reports are available for $900.
